Třinec is the strongest favourite in the five remaining games of the Tipsport Extraliga’s 11th round, according to the league’s Game Score model. The table leaders have a win probability of just over 70% against visiting Mladá Boleslav, despite having suspended players out of the lineup.
Vítkovice and Karlovy Vary are also rated above 60%. Vítkovice host České Budějovice, whose goalkeeping problems could offer the home side an opportunity. Karlovy Vary are substantial favourites away to Olomouc. The other two games pit home favourites Plzeň against Sparta in a rematch of last season’s quarter-final, and Kladno against Kometa Brno.
The model runs 50,000 simulations and considers current rosters, including injuries and suspensions, as well as home advantage. Home teams won more than 57% of games over the past three seasons. Four of the five matchups have a betting advantage for one side, and in each case the model favours that team. It correctly picked the winner in 62% of games last season.